Saturday, January 3, 2015

Losing the Zero-Sum Game

With a salary cap on what each team can pay their players in the NFL, compensation becomes a "zero-sum game" meaning if you overpay for one player that limits what you can pay another player, and what funds a team has available to acquire additional players.

During Coach Joe Gibbs 1.0 success, there was no salary cap, so at times, over paying star players or compensating valuable role players well-beyond what other teams were willing to do at that time to keep the core of the team together, turned out to be a winning strategy with four Superbowl appearances and three Championships during that era.

When Gibbs took over the Redskins the second time, he never seemed to fully grasp the salary cap, and the need to get value for every dollar he was committing to a player. During his first tenure, the fact that he way over paid an aging Mark Brunell wouldn't have been a big deal. But in the Gibbs 2.0 seasons, it was a disaster, saddling the team with under-performing quarterback who was also taking up nearly 10% of the total funds allocate for salaries for the entire team.

With this zero-sum game in mind, let's take a look at how the Redskins are currently spending their money, and which players are worth their contracts based on their average annual compensation over the course of the contract. Salaries that are considered "worth it" are compensation that I would be willing to pay that player for 2015 based on their on-field production for the 2014 season.

Those placed in the marginal category, are worth considering for 2015, unless the team can significantly upgrade or get better value for the money.

Those labeled as bad contracts shouldn't even be considered for the 2015 roster at their 2014 price tag.

In total, the sum of the bad contracts ($62.3 million) is greater than the good contracts and the marginal contracts combined ($57 million). Meaning that the Redskins wasted over half the money they spent on player salaries in 2014, which would surely place the Redskins near the league lead in this dubious category.

Also interesting to note is that of the 17 players earning more than $2 million per year, only four clearly earned their money in 2014, while 10 contributed so little, that they shouldn't even be considered for the 2015 roster at the same level of compensation.

And perhaps most disturbing to Redskins fans and the future of the team, of these ten, 7 were signed to their contracts after the end of the 2013 season, firmly the responsibility of President and GM Bruce Allen. Weigh that against Allen's limited positive contributions (two solid draft picks in Trent Murphy and Bashaud Breeland, and the signing of DeSean Jackson), and it is easy to see why there is so little confidence that the current front office's ability to turn around the team's on-field fortune any time soon.
     
Worth it  (18 players, totaling $31 million)

Trent Williams          $10,000,000
DeSean Jackson            6,000,000
Darrel Young                1,323,000
Alfred Morris                  555,000
Bashaud Breeland            676,000
Keenan Robinson            630,000
Colt McCoy                     795,000
Jordan Reed                     690,000
Chris Baker                   3,000,000
Ryan Kerrigan               2,180,000
Trent Murphy                1,118,000
Nick Sundberg              1,000,000
Roy Helu                         627,000
Ryan Grant                      608,000
Niles Paul                        555,000
Will Compton                  496,000
Kai Forbath                      480,000
Tress Way                        465,000

Marginal  (14 players, totaling $26 million)

Pierre Garcon             $8,500,000
Robert Griffin III          5,279,000
Kory Lichtensteiger      3,500,000
Jarvis Jenkins                1,195,000
Logan Paulsen               1,333,000
David Amerson                962,000
Morgan Moses                 793,000
Adam Heyward              1,000,000 
Spencer Long                    715,000
Kirk Cousins                     643,000
Frank Kearse                     615,000
Tom Compton                   480,000
Phillip Thomas                  465,000
Chris Thompson                495,000

Bad Deal (18 players, totaling 62.3 million)

Andre Roberts            $4,000,000
Barry Cofield                6,000,000
Jason Hatcher               6,875,000
Stephen Bowen            5,500,000
Chris Chester               4,000,000
DeAngelo Hall             4,250,000
Shawn Lauvao              4,250,000
Perry Riley                    4,000,000
Brian Orakpo               11,000,000
Tracy Porter                   3,000,000
Kendric Goldston           1,100,000
Josh LeRibeus                   714,000
Leonard Hankerson           680,000
Tyler Polumbus              1,000,000
Ryan Clark                     1,020,000
Brandon Merriweather   1,000,000
E.J. Biggers                       795,000
Santana Moss                 1,020,000