You can feel it coming. The painful, and possibly defining moment, of Jay Gruden's tenure as the head coach of the Washington Redskins. Though Gruden hasn't even coached his first regular season game for the Redskins, the clock is already ticking toward a major crisis. And how he handles it, could determine whether there is a Gruden era in Washington.
After seeing his 1st team inept offense performance against the Baltimore Ravens Saturday evening, it doesn't seem like much of a stretch to imagine that around 4:00 P.M. on September 14th, Gruden and his team being escorted from FedEx Field by what's left of an angry and frustrated home crowd after losing a sloppy game to the less than stout team from Jacksonville. And if this follows an opening weekend loss in Houston, Gruden will then face a stream of media questions as a winless head coach with a major quarterback controversy on his hands.
Against the Ravens, Washington's face-of-the-franchise quarterback was awful, overseeing an offense that produce almost as many turnovers (2) as it did points (3) in a little more than a half of play. And this doesn't count RGIII's flub of simple and accurate shotgun snap that robbed his team of the chance to keep a promising drive going.
For the evening, Griffin's quarterback rating of 27.1 was a good indication of how badly he and his offense mates played. At least on this night, he and his mates looked like a team that will struggle to win a game, any game, let alone deserve to be in the playoff conversation.
Last year, Griffin was obviously struggling physically with his knee - never displaying with the speed and explosiveness that had marked his successful rookie campaign in 2012. So far this preseason, his speed seems to have returned, and he has thrown a few really crisp, accurate passes.
But he hasn't shown any ability to throw under pass-rush pressure, or to quickly diagnose defenses and respond with a quick release. And even when he has plenty of time in the pocket, it too often appears that he just doesn't see the field very well.
A prime example of this was the disaterous first play from scrimmage to open the second half against the Ravens. The offense line did a good job on this occasion, giving Griffin plenty of time to survey the field. And, even on TV, it was obvious that tight end Jordan Reed was running virtually uncovered up the left seem. Surely, with time, Griffen would spot him and make a fairly routine throw for a big gain.
Instead, after seemingly taking a glance in Reed's direction, Griffen held the ball for an extra count before dumping it off to Alfred Morris, who had swung out of the backfield while tracked by two Ravens. As the ball arrived, Morris was sandwiched, popping it up into the air for an easy interception.
The fact that Kirk Cousins entered the game on the next series looking sharp and decisive, making quick reads and mostly accurate throws will undoubtedly put extra stress on Gruden if Griffin and the offense doesn't perform considerably better once the regular season gets underway.
And by around 4:00 on September 14th, if the Redskins are 0-2, and the offense is largely to blame, Gruden will be holding perhaps the most uncomfortable, and the most important media session of his entire life.
Gruden was brought to Washington to win with Griffin, and it will be very interesting to see if circumstances and performance allow him to stick with that plan past the first two games of his head coaching career.
Monday, August 25, 2014
Sunday, August 10, 2014
Proving a Negative with Brady and Belichick
They say you can't prove a negative, but Washington's 23-7 preseason win over New England on Thursday night may be as close as you can come. With Tom Brady most certainly sitting out the entire game, and Coach Bill Belichick apparently sitting this one out as well as he stood mostly stone-faced on the sideline, the Redskins dominated the game from start to finish.
Without Brady's quick release and surgical precision from the pocket, and Belichick's innovative defensive schemes that so often limit the attack options of the opposition, a SuperBowl contender like the Patriots didn't evening look ordinary in this preseason affair -- they looked completely over-matched.
Washington dominated the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, piling up nearly 200 yards rushing. Unlike what would unfold in a regular season match-up, the Patriots played the Redskins powerful rushing attach straight up, without any Belichick-inspired wrinkles or blitzes to disrupt their rhythm. The result was being the Redskins moved the ball steadily, accumulating 26 first downs to only 15 for the Patriots, while punting only once over the course of the game.
Instead of employing any strategic changes to bolster his team, Belichick seemed content to watch basic one-on-one match ups play out, even as his second and third units weren't showing much of an ability to win these "games within the game."
And while it is certainly true that several key starters on offense, including Brady sat out the entire game, the first quarter struggles of starting left tackle Nate Solder, demonstrated clearly how much difference Brady makes with his sharp decision-making and quick release.
On several running plays to Solder's side of the Patriot line, Solder and his mates were completely overwhelming by the aggressive charge of the Redskins linebackers. For the game, the Patriots were only able to manage a total of 63 rushing yards. Brady's ability to get out of doomed plays at the lien of scrimmage and audible to take advantage of an aggressive opponent was no where in sight.
But it was two first quarter pass plays that demonstrated how much Solder and the Patriots really rely on Brady's savvy. On the first play, outside linebacker Brian Orakpo faked an outside move, then ducked inside to pressure backup quarterback Ryan Mallett. Instead of sensing the rush and drifting to his left to create a better angle for Solder, as Brady has done hundreds of times throughout his 15 year career, Mallett, stood focused only on his receivers, leaving Solder with the option of hauling Orakpo down from behind, which he did for an obvious holding penalty, or letting Mallett get crushed.
On the next series, Mallett felt some pressure from a hard charge by left linebacker Ryan Kerrigan as he reached the top of his drop -- even though Kerrigan was being effectively blocked. Still, Mallett reacted by taking several quick steps forward in the pocket, right into the awaiting grasp of Orakpo with Solder positioned to keep Orakpo away from the original drop spot but not from the re-positioned Mallett.
With Brady in command of the offense, neither the hold nor the sack would have likely taken place, and the game announcers wouldn't have been spending so much of their commentary pointing out what a tough first quarter it was for Nate Solder.
And with a typical attacking Belichick defense, the post game talk of the depth of the Redskins backfield, featuring six running backs who all ripped off chunk plays either on the ground or through the air, wouldn't have been a major post-game storyline either.
Without Brady's quick release and surgical precision from the pocket, and Belichick's innovative defensive schemes that so often limit the attack options of the opposition, a SuperBowl contender like the Patriots didn't evening look ordinary in this preseason affair -- they looked completely over-matched.
Washington dominated the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, piling up nearly 200 yards rushing. Unlike what would unfold in a regular season match-up, the Patriots played the Redskins powerful rushing attach straight up, without any Belichick-inspired wrinkles or blitzes to disrupt their rhythm. The result was being the Redskins moved the ball steadily, accumulating 26 first downs to only 15 for the Patriots, while punting only once over the course of the game.Instead of employing any strategic changes to bolster his team, Belichick seemed content to watch basic one-on-one match ups play out, even as his second and third units weren't showing much of an ability to win these "games within the game."
And while it is certainly true that several key starters on offense, including Brady sat out the entire game, the first quarter struggles of starting left tackle Nate Solder, demonstrated clearly how much difference Brady makes with his sharp decision-making and quick release.
On several running plays to Solder's side of the Patriot line, Solder and his mates were completely overwhelming by the aggressive charge of the Redskins linebackers. For the game, the Patriots were only able to manage a total of 63 rushing yards. Brady's ability to get out of doomed plays at the lien of scrimmage and audible to take advantage of an aggressive opponent was no where in sight.
But it was two first quarter pass plays that demonstrated how much Solder and the Patriots really rely on Brady's savvy. On the first play, outside linebacker Brian Orakpo faked an outside move, then ducked inside to pressure backup quarterback Ryan Mallett. Instead of sensing the rush and drifting to his left to create a better angle for Solder, as Brady has done hundreds of times throughout his 15 year career, Mallett, stood focused only on his receivers, leaving Solder with the option of hauling Orakpo down from behind, which he did for an obvious holding penalty, or letting Mallett get crushed.
On the next series, Mallett felt some pressure from a hard charge by left linebacker Ryan Kerrigan as he reached the top of his drop -- even though Kerrigan was being effectively blocked. Still, Mallett reacted by taking several quick steps forward in the pocket, right into the awaiting grasp of Orakpo with Solder positioned to keep Orakpo away from the original drop spot but not from the re-positioned Mallett.With Brady in command of the offense, neither the hold nor the sack would have likely taken place, and the game announcers wouldn't have been spending so much of their commentary pointing out what a tough first quarter it was for Nate Solder.
And with a typical attacking Belichick defense, the post game talk of the depth of the Redskins backfield, featuring six running backs who all ripped off chunk plays either on the ground or through the air, wouldn't have been a major post-game storyline either.
Wednesday, August 6, 2014
The Beauty of National League Baseball
The strategic beauty of National League baseball was on full display in the sixth and seventh innings of the game on Monday night between the Washington Nationals and the Baltimore Orioles.
If National's catcher Wilson Ramos had just grounded out weakly to second, of lifted a lazy fly to left with two outs in the bottom of the sixth, , rookie manager Matt Williams could of simply given Tanner Roark, the surprise ace of the National's starting staff so far this year, a quick pat on the back and sent him out for the top of the seventh without much fuss.
For sure, Roark didn't seem to have his best stuff going this game, but helped by some stellar defense, he had only allowed 2 runs through six innings against a powerful Orioles lineup.
But Ramos smash a belt high fastball into the right centerfield gap for a clean single, putting runners at the corners with the Nationals holding a tenuous 3-2 lead and Roark due up.
Though Roark isn't one of those pitchers who is a near automatic out at the plate, his average would say that there was a better than 85% that he would strand the runners on base, ending the threat.
Williams didn't seem to hesitate a bit sending Roark to the plate rather then opt to pinch hit, increasing the odds of producing one or more add-on runs. Williams may have been going by the data which clearly showed that any pitch hitter he may have selected to bat for Roark would have only increased the chance of success by 5%-10%. Or he may have just been confident that Roark could hold the Orioles at bay for another inning or two to get to the back end of his bullpen.
Roark did end up hitting a sharp ground ball between first baseman Chris Davis and the bag forcing Davis to make a fine sliding stop, before gathering himself and completing the out at first.
But very quickly, the defensive part of the plan, the part that Williams needed to feel very confident in to leave Roark in the game, unraveled in a very short order. First J.J. Hardy lead off the inning with a double, followed immediately by a game tying double by Ryan Flaherty.
One out later, Roark was out of the game - only to see middle relievers Ross Detwiler and Craig Stammen each allow an RBI single that would make a loser out of Roark and the Nats in this match up each league's Eastern Division leader.
After the game, it was easy for the media and fans to second-guess Williams' decision to let Roark bat – and they most certainly did. And no one knows how things would have worked out if he had sent a pinch hitter to the plate. But that is the beauty of National League baseball. No American League manager is forces to make a tough call like this one, and they probably sleep better at night as a result.
If National's catcher Wilson Ramos had just grounded out weakly to second, of lifted a lazy fly to left with two outs in the bottom of the sixth, , rookie manager Matt Williams could of simply given Tanner Roark, the surprise ace of the National's starting staff so far this year, a quick pat on the back and sent him out for the top of the seventh without much fuss.
For sure, Roark didn't seem to have his best stuff going this game, but helped by some stellar defense, he had only allowed 2 runs through six innings against a powerful Orioles lineup.
But Ramos smash a belt high fastball into the right centerfield gap for a clean single, putting runners at the corners with the Nationals holding a tenuous 3-2 lead and Roark due up.
Though Roark isn't one of those pitchers who is a near automatic out at the plate, his average would say that there was a better than 85% that he would strand the runners on base, ending the threat.
Williams didn't seem to hesitate a bit sending Roark to the plate rather then opt to pinch hit, increasing the odds of producing one or more add-on runs. Williams may have been going by the data which clearly showed that any pitch hitter he may have selected to bat for Roark would have only increased the chance of success by 5%-10%. Or he may have just been confident that Roark could hold the Orioles at bay for another inning or two to get to the back end of his bullpen.
Roark did end up hitting a sharp ground ball between first baseman Chris Davis and the bag forcing Davis to make a fine sliding stop, before gathering himself and completing the out at first.But very quickly, the defensive part of the plan, the part that Williams needed to feel very confident in to leave Roark in the game, unraveled in a very short order. First J.J. Hardy lead off the inning with a double, followed immediately by a game tying double by Ryan Flaherty.
One out later, Roark was out of the game - only to see middle relievers Ross Detwiler and Craig Stammen each allow an RBI single that would make a loser out of Roark and the Nats in this match up each league's Eastern Division leader.
After the game, it was easy for the media and fans to second-guess Williams' decision to let Roark bat – and they most certainly did. And no one knows how things would have worked out if he had sent a pinch hitter to the plate. But that is the beauty of National League baseball. No American League manager is forces to make a tough call like this one, and they probably sleep better at night as a result.
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