Wednesday, August 6, 2014

The Beauty of National League Baseball

The strategic beauty of National League baseball was on full display in the sixth and seventh innings of the game on Monday night between the Washington Nationals and the Baltimore Orioles.

If National's catcher Wilson Ramos had just grounded out weakly to second, of lifted a lazy fly to left with two outs in the bottom of the sixth, , rookie manager Matt Williams could of simply given Tanner Roark, the surprise ace of the National's starting staff so far this year, a quick pat on the back and sent him out for the top of the seventh without much fuss.

For sure, Roark didn't seem to have his best stuff going this game, but helped by some stellar defense, he had only allowed 2 runs through six innings against a powerful Orioles lineup.

But Ramos smash a belt high fastball into the right centerfield gap for a clean single, putting runners at the corners with the Nationals holding a tenuous 3-2 lead and Roark due up.

Though Roark isn't one of those pitchers who is a near automatic out at the plate, his average would say that there was a better than 85% that he would strand the runners on base, ending the threat.

Williams didn't seem to hesitate a bit sending Roark to the plate rather then opt to pinch hit,  increasing the odds of producing one or more add-on runs. Williams may have been going by the data which clearly showed that any pitch hitter he may have selected to bat for Roark would have only increased the chance of success by 5%-10%. Or he may have just been confident that Roark could hold the Orioles at bay for another inning or two to get to the back end of his bullpen.

Roark did end up hitting a sharp ground ball between first baseman Chris Davis and the bag forcing Davis to make a fine sliding stop, before gathering himself and completing the out at first.

But very quickly, the defensive part of the plan, the part that Williams needed to feel very confident in to leave Roark in the game, unraveled in a very short order. First J.J. Hardy lead off the inning with a double, followed immediately by a game tying double by Ryan Flaherty.

One out later, Roark was out of the game - only to see middle relievers Ross Detwiler and Craig Stammen each allow an RBI single that would make a loser out of Roark and the Nats in this match up each league's Eastern Division leader.

After the game, it was easy for the media and fans to second-guess Williams' decision to let Roark bat – and they most certainly did. And no one knows how things would have worked out if he had sent a pinch hitter to the plate. But that is the beauty of National League baseball. No American League manager is forces to make a tough call like this one, and they probably sleep better at night as a result.



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